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Good morning, today if you haven't heard is Earth Day. No doubt the news coverage will be all over saving the earth topics and stories about global warming and climate change. This is a good thing, we should be aware of our environment and how we can do things to make life better on this planet.
We are also approaching hurricane season rapidly. The Atlantic Season starts on June 1st. You may have heard about the group of scientists out of Colorado State University that puts out a hurricane forecast every year - it usually makes the news. This year they are predicting 15 named storms, 8 of which are forecast to become hurricanes, and 4 of those storms will be strong - Category 3 or higher. Dr. Gray and his team of scientists have taken a little heat over the last two years because their long range forecasts have not exactly panned out for various reasons. His team revises the forecast during the season depending on the weather factors and changes they see occurring. The last two years they have always revised downward. I will not knock Dr. Gray or any of his scientists as they are incredibly smart people who do a very difficult job. If you watch the local news on a regular basis you know that sometimes even 7 days out we have trouble seeing the exact picture of what is going to happen, and speak in more general terms, especially in the winter with snow storms. Weather is constantly changing, the atmosphere is a fluid and because of that forecasts do at times bust. Imagine trying to forecast out months in advance!
Dr. Gray and his team also said some very interesting things about the relationship between hurricanes and global warming. After the record breaking hurricane season of 2005 in which 31 tropical systems developed (one was Katrina in New Orleans) there were alot of people looking at the relationship between global warming and hurricanes. At face value, a warmer globe equals a warmer ocean, which equals more and stronger hurricanes right? Well not really, however the media and strong supporters of global warming latched onto this after 2005. Unfortunetly all the information and hype was not the complete science. Yes warmer oceans can make more frequent and stronger hurricanes. Hurricanes get their energy from warm water, but that is not the whole picture. For example, over the last two years there have been many fewer tropical systems, most not making landfall, and many others not even making it to hurricane strength. The warm water is still there, so what is the deal? Easterly trade winds over the Carribean were much stronger than the 2005, which inhibits tropical development because the individual thunderstorms cannot get organized. Some say El Nino - which is the warming of the Pacific waters off South America had something to do with that.
What bothers me, and many other meteorologists I know is that there is too much hype, most of it caused by people in our line of work....the media. What is unfortunate is that this topic and many that deal with global warming cannot be fit into a 30 sec or 1 minute soundbite. It is an extremely complicated topic. I heard a stock analyst on one of the 24 hour news channels say that because of warmer ocean temperatures and increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico (where there are alot of oil platforms) the price of oil will soar to all time highs. I looked into his qualifications, brilliant man - in finance, saw nothing of a meteorology or climatology degree. This is so dangerous! At the time there was no threat to the Gulf, nor was there a prediction of what he was claiming to be true. Do we really need to hype weather to make oil to rise any faster? That is just one example, but this is what the public hears and since "important" people on tv are saying it, often time people think it must be true.
I'll stick with hurricanes in this post, and maybe deal with my thoughts on global warming in a future one. For now, if your interested in these topics I encourage you to learn everything you can about them. Look at both sides of the issues, not just the "popular" ones that you read in the newspaper or hear on the tv. You can find the Hurricane forecast at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts
Celebrate Earth Day!
As always, thanks for reading and watching!
Brandon
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It was an interesting weekend for weather around here. Friday was cool and rainy, temps only got into the low 50's. Rain here in Albany cleared out by early Saturday morning as a warm front surged north of the region, which also caused temperatures to jump into the low 70's and it turned out to be a nice day. This kind of thing happening is not uncommon for April, we'll discuss that more later. Sunday was back to cool and damp, with lots of clouds for most of the day, and temps here in Albany never got above 50....what a contrast!
We are caught in the battleground this time of year. The cold air does not want to leave, and the warm air is building to our south trying to push in. Since Friday there has been a cold pool of air sitting above the Northeast. (see attached image) The sun is strong this time of year so as it rises it heats the ground quickly. This heat rises into the atmosphere and cools which causes clouds to form. The cold air wants to sink as it is heavier (more dense) than the warm air rising and you get a conveyor belt going. This causes clouds, and "instability" showers as any moisture that is around will be precipitated out. If you add an area of low pressure or a front, precipitation is enhanced as was the case early Saturday morning, and again on Sunday. The day starts sunny, but within a few hours of sunrise the clouds are already thickening up and the afternoon is not quite as nice.
This causes headaches when trying to forecast temperatures because any break in the clouds causes a quick warmup, but when the clouds roll in early and stay all day, the temperatures often do not follow the forecast. This was the situation on Saturday, and Sunday we had the complete opposite, cold and cloudy.
Anyway, this pattern is breaking and high pressure is building in for the rest of the week. By Tuesday temps will be in the mid-50's with lots of sunshine, and by Thursday and Friday 70's are in the forecast.
Brandon
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Monday turned out to be a pleasant surprise with temps turning out a bit warmer than forecasted. Never underestimate the strong April sun! The morning cloud cover was burned off quickly getting the sun out much sooner than thought and temps a bit higher too. Funny...I did not hear any complaints.
Today is forecast to almost be a cookie cutter day to Monday, and Wednesday will be dry, a bit breezy, but temps should get into the upper 60's
High pressure will begin to weaken Wednesday night and Thursday which will bring an end to the nice stretch of weather. The overall weather pattern across the U.S. will be changing late week and this will bring rain to our neck of the woods.
A weak disturbance passes by early on Thursday, this may bring a sprinkle or two in the morning, however this front does not have alot of moisture with it, so some will see nothing at all. Perhaps a bit of sun on Thursday afternoon, and then the clouds will roll back in.
Friday is forecast to be wet, and just like the nice weather lingered early in the week, the wet weather is forecast to hang around through the first half of the weekend at least.
Enjoy the sun!
Brandon
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You know the saying, "in like a lion, out like a lamb" - not this year.
March has been a very interesting and complicated month for weather. We had lots of rain, which usually came with mixes of snow and ice. March was also colder than normal, which when taken at surface value might beg the question, "Why didn't we get more snow?". It all had to do with storm track. Many of our winter storms dating all the way back to December have taken a more westerly route. Any area of low pressure which tracks to the west of Albany generally brings in warm air from the south and gives us rain. The storms that track east of Albany give us the best chance for snow as the cold air gets locked in across our forecast areas. Despite some colder temps, the tracks were always too far west. March's average temperature was 33.6° which is 1.2° below normal. Today should not have a huge effect on the average.
March is already 3rd all time for total rainfall (5.99") this month. This knocks March 1977 down to 4th with 5.90" of rain. Even with the rain expected today, this is where the month will rank.
After a little ice this morning, temps will warm into the 40's which will leave us with some scattered rain showers for the rest of the day. Tomorrow some very mild weather is expected for the first day in April. Many locations will get into the 60's with 70's to our south possible. It is an April Fool however, late tomorrow afternoon another front is forecast to push through with heavy rain, wind, and maybe even a thunderstorm. This will bring temps back down a bit for the rest of the week.
So enough doom and gloom, here is the positive news - the overall weather pattern does look to be changing to more of a spring one. Over the next week or two the forecast models are hinting at an overall pattern for more spring weather. That would mean highs in the 50's and lows near 30°.
By the way, opening day is today - as baseball is one of my favorite sports, here is a forecast for our NY teams.
Yankees - Game time 1:05pm in the Bronx - Temp 47°, breezy, mostly cloudy with the chance of some showers. They should get the game in, but if your going bring a warm jacket and something to keep the rain off. It will be a cold day at the park!
Mets - Game time 4:10pm in Miami - Temp 79°, partly sunny, with the chance of thunderstorms. This by no means describes my loyalty to either team, however given the choice, I'd rather be at the Met game! 70's sound good about now.
Brandon
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Here are some of the notable stats from December.
Snowfall to date - 17.7" --- Monthly Average: 13" , +4.7" above normal.
Temperature Average - 25.1" --- 5.2 degrees below normal. Albany has been "normal" or above average only 4 days out of 16 this month. Brrr...
Only after the Valentine's Day storm last year was Albany's seasonal snowfall above the level that we sit at today! Last December at this time we were just coming off a stretch of days that were in the 50's!
....and the current trend continues. Looking at some of the longer range forecast models the weather looks cold through Christmas and likely right into the New Year. A few storms may bring a brief modification or "warmup" of the weather for a day or two (I'm talking temps in the 35-40 degree range.) otherwise expect colder temps and the snow/ice/sleet storms to continue.
As always, thanks for tuning in,
Brandon
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Something to watch over the next several days.....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html
This area of clouds and storms northeast of the Bahamas is not much right now, but with conditions improving over the next 24-48 hours it could become tropical. Computer models are hinting at an area of low pressure to develop and head northward. If this indeed plays out we could get some rain this weekend, most likely on Sunday.
-Brandon
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Hurricane Dean, after dealing a glancing blow to Jamaica yesterday and the Caymans today will continue west through the Caribbean. It is very likely that it will become a Category 5 storm before it makes landfall again along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. The very popular resort destination of Cancun is in this area. The water is incredibly warm in this area of the Caribbean and atmospheric conditions are very good for Dean to strengthen.
The good news is for the United States. Dean is forecast to stay south, and once it crosses the Yucatan will continue west into mainland Mexico. Dean will be held south by a building area of high pressure to the north of the system.
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Dean, the first named hurricane of the season has formed. Its one of my favorite topics to discuss, so I'll keep up to date more often on this blog with my thinking on any storms that develop.
Currently Dean is located east of the Leeward Islands and moving quickly westward at about 25mph. Dean is a category 1 storm with 75mph winds, but I would expect some additional strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours to a category 2 or possibly 3 before it enters the Carribean. Right now the islands of Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia and the Grenadines look to be the first victims in the path of this storm.
I would expect Dean to continue westward during the weekend as it is being steered by a strong area of high pressure over the central Atlantic. (see link to wx map graphic below)
Once it moves into the central Carribean it is likely that this storm will continue to strengthen as the conditions remain quite favorable ie: low upper level wind shear, and lots of warm water. As for a future track I see two possibilities: One, continued westward movement toward the Yucatan Penninsula of Mexico. This will happen if the high pressure ridge to the north remains strong and a front which is forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast on Sunday has no effect on the storm. The official forecast models are latching on to this solution and the National Hurricane Center is following this track.
Two, the front mentioned above pulls the system northward as it nears Cuba. This is possible if the front turns out stronger, or the next area of high pressure does not build in fast enough to support a stronger high in the first solution. (see link wx maps graphic below)
As for the United States, even if it heads toward us, it would not be until mid to late next week that it would be a concern.
Brandon
p.s. please excuse my hand drawn graphics.... :-)
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July 2007 will go down in the record books as one of the wettest here in Albany. Here is the top ten list courtesy of the Albany National Weather Service.
FROM THE TOP TEN BOOK JULY 1795 THRU 2006
WARMEST COLDEST WETTEST DRIEST
===================================
1 79.7 1868 67.6 1992 9.37 1871 0.49 1968
2 78.6 1872 67.6 2000 8.57 1850 0.62 1929
3 77.6 1820 68.3 1860 7.92 1848 0.70 1849
4 77.3 1854 68.4 1971 7.83 1863 0.84 2002
5 77.1 1825 68.5 1976 7.54 2005 0.86 1955
6 77.1 1887 68.6 1829 7.20 2004 1.07 1898
7 77.0 1870 68.6 1875 7.19 1870 1.20 1963
8 76.6 1866 68.8 1978 6.96 1975 1.27 1922
9 76.5 1921 68.9 1965 6.94 1858 1.28 1910
10 76.5 1955 68.9 1984 6.78 1874 1.29 1964
68.9 2001
====================================
A total of 7.03" of rain fell during the month of July (3.65" above normal) placing the month in the #8 slot on the list which will bump July of 1874 off when it is updated.
On a completely different topic, hurricane season has been uneventful so far.....until today. Tropical Depression #3 (now Tropical Storm Chantal) formed yesterday off the U.S East Coast between Bermuda and Cape Cod. The system poses no threat to U.S. interests, unless you’re in a boat. Canada may be dealt a glancing blow, but the storm will not be tropical by then, just a powerful ocean storm. I don't expect to see it strengthen any further as the water gets pretty chilly and the upper level winds are quite unfavorable for strengthening. Strong westerly wind shear will aid in weakening the storm.
Tropical activity has been non-existent in the Atlantic for the last several weeks due in part to the same weather pattern that had been affecting us here in New York and the entire eastern seaboard. In the higher levels of the atmosphere an area of low pressure and its associated trough has been dug in along the East Coast extending into the Caribbean. This provides a fast upper level wind flow from west to east. These winds hinder tropical development because they "tear" apart any groups of thunderstorms and squalls that form. These winds have been very obvious on satellite pictures over the last several weeks. When these winds are not present, the storm clusters tend to hang together pulling more energy and strength from the warm water and if given enough time will begin to rotate and form a tropical system.
Now the low and its associated trough has slid off the east coast and may begin to breakdown. This sets up a few scenarios for the rest of the tropical season. For the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, June through August is the best time for tropical development. As we know, it has been quiet. From August until the close of tropical season at the end of the November the focus for development is the eastern Atlantic. If the current pattern holds (low/trough over the East Coast) any activity that does develop in the central/eastern Atlantic most likely will be steered northward, curving north near or around Bermuda. This scenario happened with a few storms last year. This would keep the storms well away from the United States and Bahamas. If the pattern breaks down, any system that forms could potentially take a more westward track which is bad for anyone from the Bahamas to the Carolinas, and potentially the Northeast if conditions were just right.
For the immediate future I would not be surprised to see some increased tropical activity in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico fire up over the next week or so.
-Brandon
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Today starts the first day of hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean and from viewing the latest satellite imagery, there is not much activity to look at. In a former job I used to keep very close tabs on the tropics this time of year because I was forecasting for ships and luxury yachts at sea transiting these areas....you tend to pick up on trends.
Last year the first 15 days (actually through June for that matter) the Pacific tropical season was fairly quiet with only 2 weak systems forming. Actually there was not much thunderstorm activity at all in the east Pacific. In fact, at the time I remember having the discussion with my colleagues and boat captains about how slow the season was progressing and would it have any relevance to the Atlantic hurricane season which starts June 1st.
As it turns out, the Atlantic season was much calmer than forecasted.
Now I am not trying to draw any specific scientific conclusion here as I am only drawing on my past experience, but it would be worth watching the east Pacific over the next few weeks to see what kind, if any, storms develop. It could be a sign of what is to come in the Atlantic once again.
The one big difference between this year and last is the absence of El Nino this year in the east Pacific. El Nino increases the wind shear across the lower latitudes and hinders the development of tropical systems. That alone, would have me expecting a busier hurricane season in the Atalntic this year. How busy is yet to be seen....
Back in New York...
Warm temperatures into the 80's are expected today, but warm temps will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon. There is a slight risk that some of these will be severe - packing strong winds and possible hail. The risk of severe thunderstorms do increase tonight and Wednesday as a potent low and cold front cross the state around mid-day Wednesday. Temperatures will also cool off and may struggle to get to 60° by Thursday. The week should end on a cool and unsettled note, keeping the chance for showers into Friday. Another system may head our way for the weekend, but I'll hold optomistic that it will miss us to the east, and better weather will prevail. That will depend partly on what happens today and tomorrow.
Brandon
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MLK weekend, Valentines Day, and St. Patrick’s weekend....some of our biggest winter weather events have all been clustered around holidays this season. This storm did not make it into the record books, officially leaving about 13" of snow in Albany. If there was about 2" more snow, it would have been a top 10 snowstorm for March.
Columbia County had the highest amounts with many towns reporting 20-24". The Catskills had similar amounts as well. Albany, Rensselaer, Saratoga, and Washington Counties received 12-18", with most other places in the North Country and Mohawk Valley receiving between 8" and a foot.
The Albany snowfall total is up to about 42" for the season, which is still shy of the seasonal average of 63".
"What are these "models" that you weather guys talk about so much?" I received this question a few times past weekend ---- and no they are not a group of runway fashion models that come into the weather center in the morning and whisper the snowfall totals into my ear.
Basically the weather models are a visual representation of the weather that meteorologists use as a tool to forecast. Computers ingest real time weather data from all levels of the atmosphere and using some high level math equations output a weather forecast. Using the pictorial representation that these models provide, we can forecast temperatures, precipitation, wind speeds, etc.
There are many different versions of these weather models, but the two most popular are the GFS (Global Forecast System) and NAM (North American Model). Each model arrives at its solutions through a different series of calculations. (This will come into play later) The models are run every day at 6 hour intervals, giving us 4 sets of data to view.
Last week leading up to the storm the models were in disagreement as to the weather solution for Friday. The solutions were pretty much complete opposites, one showing dry weather, and the other showing snow for Friday. When this happens, I walk into the back of the studio where I have a dartboard set up, and begin throwing, bulls-eye = sunny. (Seriously, I'm kidding) The reason for the discrepancy is because these models all use the data they ingest in different ways to calculate a solution.
Conversely, the Valentines Day storm was portrayed well in the days leading up to it by the models because they were showing similar solutions all along. Also, in hindsight, they were right! This does not mean the models are always right, but if the other data sources agree, that would lead to a higher confidence in the model solution.
Now just because the models don't agree, does not mean you get a forecast that is not reliable. Remember I said they were 1 tool that we use. As meteorologists we know how to interpret these models and are trained to know why the models output what they do. By knowing this, we can pick which model we follow more closely, and disregard or put less weight in a solution we don't see happening. We can also look at multiple other sources of data to forecast, as well as rely on good old experience and knowledge about this area to provide a forecast that is just as accurate.
The weather models did not really come into agreement until Thursday night, which is why you heard us talking about the disagreement in the forecasts all week long. By the way, if you would like to see what the forecast models look like click here http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/. You'll find they are a much more scientific representation of the maps we show you on tv.
Remember the official start of Spring is 8:08pm Tuesday night. It won’t feel much like spring, but by the end of the week it will as temperatures rise into the 50’s!
Brandon
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What were the coldest days in Albany this season to date?
| Day |
High |
Low |
Average |
| 17-Jan |
19° |
3° |
11° |
| 26-Jan |
11° |
3° |
4° |
| 27-Jan |
17° |
5° |
11° |
| 5-Feb |
14° |
4° |
9° |
| 13-Feb |
15° |
2° |
9° |
| 15-Feb |
13° |
6° |
10° |
| 19-Feb |
16° |
-1° |
8° |
| 6-Mar |
14° |
-3° |
6° |
| 9-Mar |
? |
? |
? |
Now during the last week in January there were a handful of days that had average temperatures of about 11°, but I did not list them all.
As I write this morning the temperature at Albany airport is -2° and Glens Falls is -17°. Whatever the official morning low turns out to be in Albany it appears that due to the forecasted highs near 30°, this will average out to not be the coldest day of the season. January 26th should hold onto that title.
The good news is that the weekend will be much warmer, and we'll carry that into next week.
Have a great weekend.
Brandon
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For those who love snow, including myself, we finally got a real New York snowstorm! I enjoy these events for two reasons. One, its fun and exciting to talk about on-air, using all the excellent tools the FOX23 News Weather Center has to explain what is going on. Two, I enjoy the outdoor activities that come along with big snows. My weekend was dedicated to finding fresh powder at our local ski areas. My neighbors were able to take their snowmobiles off the trailer which put a stop to the good-natured ribbing I have been receiving from them about the lack of snow 
There was alot of "record breaking" talk about this storm as it headed our way last week, so here is the wrap-up on the Valentine's Day Storm 2007.
Officially here in Albany 16.8" of snow was measured. This would make it the 5th largest February storm. #1 in February was also on Valentine's Day in 1914 leaving 23.5" inches of snow.
Folks in the Adirondacks got the most with over 3ft in some locations. The National Weather Service has collected this data and you can follow this link to the totals. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Past/2007/Feb_14_2007/PNS.txt
Officially or unofficially and regardless of what records it did or did not break this was a major snowstorm for New York and much of New England.
Albany is up to 23.4" of snow this season, which is still a far cry from our 67" seasonal average. This winter may end up making the list as one of Albany's least snowiest winters. Last year was one, registering the 13th lowest snowfall total, only 30.2".
If you still crave more information on the V-Day storm, the NWS has put together a report that can be found by follwing this link http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Past/2007/Feb_14_2007/Feb_14_2007.htm
As for big storms in the near future there is nothing that looks too promising. This week is forecast to bring about a pattern change. The "arctic express" will break down and the jetstream with become more westerly by Tuesday. This will bring more seasonable weather, especially in terms of temperatures this week. A few weak clipper systems may bring some light snow, or a mix of precipitation for some every couple of days. By the end of the weekend potentially a larger storm may make its way out of the mid-west and head our way. Preliminary data does not paint a favorable track for snow, but we will keep a close eye on it.
Thanks for watching!
Brandon
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I'm talking big old fashoned upstate New York snowstorm!
Yes, many parts of our region have received some bursts of light to moderate snow over the last week, the most recent being this morning. However, these light snow events are not even putting a dent in our snow deficit. More on that in a minute....
As for the temperatures, since the beginning of January, they have taken a tumble. The daily average temperature for the first 7 days of January was 44°. This is 22° above average! You will probably remember that this week included our record high of 71° on Saturday the 6th. The following 7 days (8th-14th) brought the average daily temperature down to 32.7°, and during the last week we have gotten down to normal with our average daily temperature at 22.6°.
So the cold air is here, with no end in sight. The pattern shift occurred about a week ago with one storm system opening the door to the arctic air from the north. Now, the overall global pattern supports a more winter-like pattern over the Northeastern U.S.
Snowfall here in Albany has been virtually non-existant. To date, we only have 1.9" of snow recorded which is 28.5" below normal. We have alot of ground to make up to get to our 62.7" seasonal average. Un-officially pretty much everyone from the North Country to the Green Mountains, Mohawk Valley to the Berkshires have not seen the snowfall they have come to expect by this time in the season. However, some of these locations have gotten more than those of us in the Capital District.
Now that we have the cold air in place, we need to get a coastal storm. Lately, there have been 2 that have passed out to sea to far south and east to affect our region. One of the larger reasons for this is due to the jetstream upper level wind pattern. The jetstream works the same as an ocean current only with air rather than water. Its a transport mechanism for the atmosphere. In the winter we talk about the polar jet and the sub-tropical or tropical jet, each carrying its brand of temperatures and weather. Now that the polar jet has dropped south of our region opening the door to cold, we need it to "phase" with the sub-tropical jet to bring a storm up the east coast, rather than off the east coast. The clash between cold and warm air is what causes storms, and right now, that is occuring over the mid-Atlantic, with nothing in place to steer a weather system north.
The current weather pattern does not show a phase happening this week. The polar jet will continue to steer weather systems off the mid-Atlantic coast. The sub-tropical jet is well to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Until these two can phase together, I do not expect a big snowstorm to come in our direction.
What I do expect is cold temperatures to continue, with another round of sub-zero overnights coming by Thursday and Friday. There will be a little bit of snow from weak Alberta Clipper systems passing every few days, and also some lake effect, otherwise significant snow over a broad region is not in the forecast.
Brandon
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Happy New Year, I hope the holidays have treated you well. I am sorry if you were the recipient of new ski equipment and are wishing for some natural snow. I was in Vermont this past weekend and I have to say the resorts have done a good job in getting their slopes open despite the uncooperative weather. A light snow fell pretty much all day in the mountains on Saturday, which left about 3-4" in some locations. Although not fully open, the trails were not crowded for a Saturday, and the skiing was pretty good - all things considered.
In my last post I discussed the unseasonably warm weather for December...and it was only about halfway through the month! The final tally is in and December was 7.2° above normal with a daily average temperture of 35.2°. This would make it the 7th warmest on record since 1795. Actually it ties with December 1852. Just for some background- 1881 was the warmest December in history with a daily average temp of 38.6°
There was not much in the way of snow, only 0.3", which would be the 3rd least snowiest since 1874. December of 1895 and 1928 top the list, with only a trace. Typically Albany will receive about 13" of snow in December.
In January, the average daily highs should be in the low 30's, with lows in the teens. On average there is about 18" of snow. Our weather for the next few days will not start out that way, as I expect temperatures to remain in the 40's for much of the upcoming week during the day, with overnight lows near 30°, and more rain likely by Friday.
A number of factors are contributing to the above average warmth and in-turn, lack of snow. The polar jet is, for lack of a better term, "stuck" up in Canada, keeping the coldest of air bottled up at the North Pole. Our storm track has been too far west and this is partially due to a blocking pattern in the Atlantic. In order for our area to get snowfall a storm track up along the east coast tracking east of the Hudson Valley is preferred, this keeps whatever cold air there is over New York. When the storm tracks through the Ohio River Valley and to the west of the state, the warm air on the east side of the storm takes over.
El Nino is also a contributor. El Nino is the warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters. The warming of the waters causes changes in the water currents and as a result, the weather patterns across the globe. Scientists are calling this a weak El Nino event, which for us means warmer than average temperatures, and about average precipitation. El Nino affects the jetstream and Atlantic weather patterns discussed above. On a side-note, it was also one of the reasons the Atlantic hurricane season was so quiet this past year. This topic is pretty vast, and one could get very in depth. If you would like to read more information check out this weblink. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Maybe pool your seasonal lift ticket budget, and book a trip to Colorado for a couple days if the conditions around here are not to your liking....I hear Denver has had some snow lately 
-Brandon
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