Brandon's Weblog

Wet Weather

2008-07-29T11:03:00Z

Is your backyard looking like a jungle because the lawn hasn't been mowed in a few days? July has been a very wet month. More than half the month has rain on record at the airport....and that is just for Albany. There have been many stormy afternoons with heavy rain that have missed the official recording station. You must be thinking we're breaking some kind of precipitation record right? With 6.82" officially in the gauge this month and a few days to go- we don't even make the top ten! A little over .10" is needed to crack the top ten. 2004, 2005 and 2007 all make the top 10 with over 7" of precipitation. Brandon

Next Possible Tropical System

2008-07-14T14:10:00Z

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Check out the spin east of the Carribean near Lat/Long 13N/44W. This could very well become the next tropical system of the season by tomorrow if the rotation in storms continue. Wind sheer, which are upper level winds that tend to hinder development is very low, and the complex of storms is over warm water.

Expect this complex of storms or tropical system if it develops further to continue west over the next 48 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html ----Sat Loop of Bertha

Now Tropical Storm Bertha which is still east of Bermuda is not looking very good on the satellite pictures. However it will still pack a bit of a punch as it grazes Bermuda. From the satellite picture it does appear that the storm is beginning a more northerly track. Bertha will not move too quickly and may even meander a little bit near Bermuda over the next 24-48 hours until it actually gets a push from the front coming off the east coast of the U.S.

Brandon

First Hurricane of the Season

2008-07-07T09:50:00Z

The tropical storm that was way out in the eastern Atlantic this weekend became the first named hurricane of the season this morning. Hurricane Bertha is a Category 1 storm with winds around 75mph this morning.

Hurricanes developing in the eastern Atlantic is somewhat rare this time of year although it has happened in the past. Ironically the last storm was also named Bertha back in 1996. The Carribean is typically where most tropical activity occurs this time of the year.

Hurricane Bertha is forecast to slow forward speed and not strengthen too much over the next 2-3 days. The storm will be streered by a large area of high pressure for the next several days so the threat to the United States or Carribean at this time is low. The storm should turn northward by the end of the week which keeps it away from the U.S.

As for our weather, expect typical summertime conditions, temps in the mid to upper 80's, hazy and humid, with a few afternoon thunderstorms. The end of the week should bring less humidity, and slightly cooler temperatures.

Brandon

It Could Have Been Worse

2008-06-11T13:40:00Z

Of course with a chuckle I present the below...

After 4 straight days of 90°+ temperatures and tropical humidity I thought you might find these historical facts interesting.

The longest heat wave in Albany was 10 days in 1953. August 27 through September 5.

The hottest day recorded in Albany - 104° - July 4, 1911.

See so we didn't have it so bad....

The only day we broke a record high was Tuesday with 96°. The old record was 92°.

Every record high temperature in the month of June for Albany is 90+ degrees.

Nothing in the forecast brings that kind of weather back anytime soon. It will be seasonably warm the next few days with low humidity.

Brandon

Welcome to Hurricane Season

2008-06-02T10:20:00Z

June 1st was the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The first storm of the season popped up in the southwestern Carribean as Tropical Storm Arthur on Saturday (yes it was a day early). A questionable naming as the center was already over land when it was named, but a ship bouy offshore did report a 45kt wind. Sometimes the National Hurricane Center gets a little antsy...Anyway, not much of a threat for any U.S. interests unless it re-emerges in the Bay of Campeche (which is the southern Gulf of Mexico). This is probably not going to happen.

Hurricanes are not really a threat to our location, but they are an interesting topic so I'll write about the season here over the next few months. Occaisionally we do get the remnants of these systems in our location typically they bring heavy rain and wind. The chance of that become greater later in the season - August, September, October. Short term any effects around here would more likely be on our wallets at the gas pump if a storm were to move toward the Gulf of Mexico where there are a number of oil platforms that get shutdown when a storm threatens.

Our weather will be nice today, and bring some rain by the middle of the week. May ended with a 2.43" deficit so it's getting a little dry. Some thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday afternoon, and then Wednesday should bring a decent rainfall to the area. The skies clear on Thursday and Friday, the temps will be near 80. Something that has not been too bad lately - the humidity will be on the rise going into the weekend.

Have a great week

Brandon

The Week Ahead

2008-05-20T10:53:00Z

Better weather is on the way. Monday was not a typical May day, more like an early March or November feel. The high in Albany was 53°, the normal high for yesterday is 71°. It started so nice with bright sunshine however, by 10am clouds and rain showers were popping up.

This time of year as the warm and cold air battle it out over the U.S. the Northeast sometimes gets stuck in this cold and cloudy pattern. An area of low pressure will sit just north of us, south of Hudson Bay in Canada until Thursday. This means little sun, but plenty of clouds and a few showers until then.

Two good things about this pattern - pollen and other allergens will not be as bad, that yellow coating will go away for a few days. The second - it is expected to break just in time for the holiday weekend. By the weekend I expect temperatures in the 70's and dry, sunny weather.

Brandon

Earth Day, and Hurricanes

2008-04-22T09:16:00Z

Good morning, today if you haven't heard is Earth Day. No doubt the news coverage will be all over saving the earth topics and stories about global warming and climate change. This is a good thing, we should be aware of our environment and how we can do things to make life better on this planet.

We are also approaching hurricane season rapidly. The Atlantic Season starts on June 1st. You may have heard about the group of scientists out of Colorado State University that puts out a hurricane forecast every year - it usually makes the news. This year they are predicting 15 named storms, 8 of which are forecast to become hurricanes, and 4 of those storms will be strong - Category 3 or higher. Dr. Gray and his team of scientists have taken a little heat over the last two years because their long range forecasts have not exactly panned out for various reasons. His team revises the forecast during the season depending on the weather factors and changes they see occurring. The last two years they have always revised downward. I will not knock Dr. Gray or any of his scientists as they are incredibly smart people who do a very difficult job. If you watch the local news on a regular basis you know that sometimes even 7 days out we have trouble seeing the exact picture of what is going to happen, and speak in more general terms, especially in the winter with snow storms. Weather is constantly changing, the atmosphere is a fluid and because of that forecasts do at times bust. Imagine trying to forecast out months in advance!

Dr. Gray and his team also said some very interesting things about the relationship between hurricanes and global warming. After the record breaking hurricane season of 2005 in which 31 tropical systems developed (one was Katrina in New Orleans) there were alot of people looking at the relationship between global warming and hurricanes. At face value, a warmer globe equals a warmer ocean, which equals more and stronger hurricanes right? Well not really, however the media and strong supporters of global warming latched onto this after 2005. Unfortunetly all the information and hype was not the complete science. Yes warmer oceans can make more frequent and stronger hurricanes. Hurricanes get their energy from warm water, but that is not the whole picture. For example, over the last two years there have been many fewer tropical systems, most not making landfall, and many others not even making it to hurricane strength. The warm water is still there, so what is the deal? Easterly trade winds over the Carribean were much stronger than the 2005, which inhibits tropical development because the individual thunderstorms cannot get organized. Some say El Nino - which is the warming of the Pacific waters off South America had something to do with that.

What bothers me, and many other meteorologists I know is that there is too much hype, most of it caused by people in our line of work....the media. What is unfortunate is that this topic and many that deal with global warming cannot be fit into a 30 sec or 1 minute soundbite. It is an extremely complicated topic. I heard a stock analyst on one of the 24 hour news channels say that because of warmer ocean temperatures and increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico (where there are alot of oil platforms) the price of oil will soar to all time highs. I looked into his qualifications, brilliant man - in finance, saw nothing of a meteorology or climatology degree. This is so dangerous! At the time there was no threat to the Gulf, nor was there a prediction of what he was claiming to be true. Do we really need to hype weather to make oil to rise any faster? That is just one example, but this is what the public hears and since "important" people on tv are saying it, often time people think it must be true.

I'll stick with hurricanes in this post, and maybe deal with my thoughts on global warming in a future one. For now, if your interested in these topics I encourage you to learn everything you can about them. Look at both sides of the issues, not just the "popular" ones that you read in the newspaper or hear on the tv. You can find the Hurricane forecast at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Celebrate Earth Day!

As always, thanks for reading and watching!

Brandon

Warm Weather is Coming

2008-04-14T12:32:00Z

It was an interesting weekend for weather around here. Friday was cool and rainy, temps only got into the low 50's. Rain here in Albany cleared out by early Saturday morning as a warm front surged north of the region, which also caused temperatures to jump into the low 70's and it turned out to be a nice day. This kind of thing happening is not uncommon for April, we'll discuss that more later. Sunday was back to cool and damp, with lots of clouds for most of the day, and temps here in Albany never got above 50....what a contrast!

We are caught in the battleground this time of year. The cold air does not want to leave, and the warm air is building to our south trying to push in. Since Friday there has been a cold pool of air sitting above the Northeast. (see attached image) The sun is strong this time of year so as it rises it heats the ground quickly. This heat rises into the atmosphere and cools which causes clouds to form. The cold air wants to sink as it is heavier (more dense) than the warm air rising and you get a conveyor belt going. This causes clouds, and "instability" showers as any moisture that is around will be precipitated out. If you add an area of low pressure or a front, precipitation is enhanced as was the case early Saturday morning, and again on Sunday. The day starts sunny, but within a few hours of sunrise the clouds are already thickening up and the afternoon is not quite as nice.

This causes headaches when trying to forecast temperatures because any break in the clouds causes a quick warmup, but when the clouds roll in early and stay all day, the temperatures often do not follow the forecast. This was the situation on Saturday, and Sunday we had the complete opposite, cold and cloudy.

Anyway, this pattern is breaking and high pressure is building in for the rest of the week. By Tuesday temps will be in the mid-50's with lots of sunshine, and by Thursday and Friday 70's are in the forecast.

Brandon

Quiet Weather

2008-04-08T09:27:00Z

Monday turned out to be a pleasant surprise with temps turning out a bit warmer than forecasted. Never underestimate the strong April sun! The morning cloud cover was burned off quickly getting the sun out much sooner than thought and temps a bit higher too. Funny...I did not hear any complaints.

Today is forecast to almost be a cookie cutter day to Monday, and Wednesday will be dry, a bit breezy, but temps should get into the upper 60's

High pressure will begin to weaken Wednesday night and Thursday which will bring an end to the nice stretch of weather. The overall weather pattern across the U.S. will be changing late week and this will bring rain to our neck of the woods.

A weak disturbance passes by early on Thursday, this may bring a sprinkle or two in the morning, however this front does not have alot of moisture with it, so some will see nothing at all. Perhaps a bit of sun on Thursday afternoon, and then the clouds will roll back in.

Friday is forecast to be wet, and just like the nice weather lingered early in the week, the wet weather is forecast to hang around through the first half of the weekend at least.

Enjoy the sun!

Brandon

March Is Not Going Quietly

2008-03-31T09:49:00Z

You know the saying, "in like a lion, out like a lamb" - not this year.

March has been a very interesting and complicated month for weather. We had lots of rain, which usually came with mixes of snow and ice. March was also colder than normal, which when taken at surface value might beg the question, "Why didn't we get more snow?". It all had to do with storm track. Many of our winter storms dating all the way back to December have taken a more westerly route. Any area of low pressure which tracks to the west of Albany generally brings in warm air from the south and gives us rain. The storms that track east of Albany give us the best chance for snow as the cold air gets locked in across our forecast areas. Despite some colder temps, the tracks were always too far west. March's average temperature was 33.6° which is 1.2° below normal. Today should not have a huge effect on the average.

March is already 3rd all time for total rainfall (5.99") this month. This knocks March 1977 down to 4th with 5.90" of rain. Even with the rain expected today, this is where the month will rank.

After a little ice this morning, temps will warm into the 40's which will leave us with some scattered rain showers for the rest of the day. Tomorrow some very mild weather is expected for the first day in April. Many locations will get into the 60's with 70's to our south possible. It is an April Fool however, late tomorrow afternoon another front is forecast to push through with heavy rain, wind, and maybe even a thunderstorm. This will bring temps back down a bit for the rest of the week.

So enough doom and gloom, here is the positive news - the overall weather pattern does look to be changing to more of a spring one. Over the next week or two the forecast models are hinting at an overall pattern for more spring weather. That would mean highs in the 50's and lows near 30°.

By the way, opening day is today - as baseball is one of my favorite sports, here is a forecast for our NY teams.

Yankees - Game time 1:05pm in the Bronx - Temp 47°, breezy, mostly cloudy with the chance of some showers. They should get the game in, but if your going bring a warm jacket and something to keep the rain off. It will be a cold day at the park!

Mets - Game time 4:10pm in Miami - Temp 79°, partly sunny, with the chance of thunderstorms. This by no means describes my loyalty to either team, however given the choice, I'd rather be at the Met game! 70's sound good about now.

Brandon

Snowy and cold December

2007-12-17T13:44:00Z

Here are some of the notable stats from December.

Snowfall to date - 17.7" --- Monthly Average: 13" , +4.7" above normal.

Temperature Average - 25.1" --- 5.2 degrees below normal. Albany has been "normal" or above average only 4 days out of 16 this month. Brrr...

Only after the Valentine's Day storm last year was Albany's seasonal snowfall above the level that we sit at today! Last December at this time we were just coming off a stretch of days that were in the 50's!

....and the current trend continues. Looking at some of the longer range forecast models the weather looks cold through Christmas and likely right into the New Year. A few storms may bring a brief modification or "warmup" of the weather for a day or two (I'm talking temps in the 35-40 degree range.) otherwise expect colder temps and the snow/ice/sleet storms to continue.

As always, thanks for tuning in,

Brandon

Keep an eye on this

2007-09-05T12:37:00Z

Something to watch over the next several days.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

This area of clouds and storms northeast of the Bahamas is not much right now, but with conditions improving over the next 24-48 hours it could become tropical. Computer models are hinting at an area of low pressure to develop and head northward. If this indeed plays out we could get some rain this weekend, most likely on Sunday.

-Brandon

Hurricane Dean Update

2007-08-20T12:40:00Z

Hurricane Dean, after dealing a glancing blow to Jamaica yesterday and the Caymans today will continue west through the Caribbean. It is very likely that it will become a Category 5 storm before it makes landfall again along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. The very popular resort destination of Cancun is in this area. The water is incredibly warm in this area of the Caribbean and atmospheric conditions are very good for Dean to strengthen.

The good news is for the United States. Dean is forecast to stay south, and once it crosses the Yucatan will continue west into mainland Mexico. Dean will be held south by a building area of high pressure to the north of the system.

Hurricane Dean

2007-08-16T12:46:00Z

Dean, the first named hurricane of the season has formed. Its one of my favorite topics to discuss, so I'll keep up to date more often on this blog with my thinking on any storms that develop.

Currently Dean is located east of the Leeward Islands and moving quickly westward at about 25mph. Dean is a category 1 storm with 75mph winds, but I would expect some additional strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours to a category 2 or possibly 3 before it enters the Carribean. Right now the islands of Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia and the Grenadines look to be the first victims in the path of this storm.

I would expect Dean to continue westward during the weekend as it is being steered by a strong area of high pressure over the central Atlantic. (see link to wx map graphic below)

Once it moves into the central Carribean it is likely that this storm will continue to strengthen as the conditions remain quite favorable ie: low upper level wind shear, and lots of warm water. As for a future track I see two possibilities: One, continued westward movement toward the Yucatan Penninsula of Mexico. This will happen if the high pressure ridge to the north remains strong and a front which is forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast on Sunday has no effect on the storm. The official forecast models are latching on to this solution and the National Hurricane Center is following this track.

Two, the front mentioned above pulls the system northward as it nears Cuba. This is possible if the front turns out stronger, or the next area of high pressure does not build in fast enough to support a stronger high in the first solution. (see link wx maps graphic below)

As for the United States, even if it heads toward us, it would not be until mid to late next week that it would be a concern.

Brandon

p.s. please excuse my hand drawn graphics.... :-)

Albany is all wet

2007-07-31T11:53:00Z

July 2007 will go down in the record books as one of the wettest here in Albany. Here is the top ten list courtesy of the Albany National Weather Service.

FROM THE TOP TEN BOOK JULY 1795 THRU 2006

                   WARMEST COLDEST WETTEST DRIEST
                ===================================
                 1 79.7 1868 67.6 1992 9.37 1871 0.49 1968
                 2 78.6 1872 67.6 2000 8.57 1850 0.62 1929
                 3 77.6 1820 68.3 1860 7.92 1848 0.70 1849
                 4 77.3 1854 68.4 1971 7.83 1863 0.84 2002
                 5 77.1 1825 68.5 1976 7.54 2005 0.86 1955

                 6 77.1 1887 68.6 1829 7.20 2004 1.07 1898
                 7 77.0 1870 68.6 1875 7.19 1870 1.20 1963
                 8 76.6 1866 68.8 1978 6.96 1975 1.27 1922
                 9 76.5 1921 68.9 1965 6.94 1858 1.28 1910
                10 76.5 1955 68.9 1984 6.78 1874 1.29 1964
                                        68.9 2001
                ====================================

A total of 7.03" of rain fell during the month of July (3.65" above normal) placing the month in the #8 slot on the list which will bump July of 1874 off when it is updated.

On a completely different topic, hurricane season has been uneventful so far.....until today. Tropical Depression #3 (now Tropical Storm Chantal) formed yesterday off the U.S East Coast between Bermuda and Cape Cod. The system poses no threat to U.S. interests, unless you’re in a boat. Canada may be dealt a glancing blow, but the storm will not be tropical by then, just a powerful ocean storm. I don't expect to see it strengthen any further as the water gets pretty chilly and the upper level winds are quite unfavorable for strengthening. Strong westerly wind shear will aid in weakening the storm.

Tropical activity has been non-existent in the Atlantic for the last several weeks due in part to the same weather pattern that had been affecting us here in New York and the entire eastern seaboard. In the higher levels of the atmosphere an area of low pressure and its associated trough has been dug in along the East Coast extending into the Caribbean. This provides a fast upper level wind flow from west to east. These winds hinder tropical development because they "tear" apart any groups of thunderstorms and squalls that form. These winds have been very obvious on satellite pictures over the last several weeks. When these winds are not present, the storm clusters tend to hang together pulling more energy and strength from the warm water and if given enough time will begin to rotate and form a tropical system.

Now the low and its associated trough has slid off the east coast and may begin to breakdown. This sets up a few scenarios for the rest of the tropical season. For the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, June through August is the best time for tropical development. As we know, it has been quiet. From August until the close of tropical season at the end of the November the focus for development is the eastern Atlantic. If the current pattern holds (low/trough over the East Coast) any activity that does develop in the central/eastern Atlantic most likely will be steered northward, curving north near or around Bermuda. This scenario happened with a few storms last year. This would keep the storms well away from the United States and Bahamas. If the pattern breaks down, any system that forms could potentially take a more westward track which is bad for anyone from the Bahamas to the Carolinas, and potentially the Northeast if conditions were just right.

For the immediate future I would not be surprised to see some increased tropical activity in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico fire up over the next week or so.

-Brandon