Dean, the first named hurricane of the season has formed. Its one of my favorite topics to discuss, so I'll keep up to date more often on this blog with my thinking on any storms that develop.
Currently Dean is located east of the Leeward Islands and moving quickly westward at about 25mph. Dean is a category 1 storm with 75mph winds, but I would expect some additional strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours to a category 2 or possibly 3 before it enters the Carribean. Right now the islands of Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia and the Grenadines look to be the first victims in the path of this storm.
I would expect Dean to continue westward during the weekend as it is being steered by a strong area of high pressure over the central Atlantic. (see link to wx map graphic below)
Once it moves into the central Carribean it is likely that this storm will continue to strengthen as the conditions remain quite favorable ie: low upper level wind shear, and lots of warm water. As for a future track I see two possibilities: One, continued westward movement toward the Yucatan Penninsula of Mexico. This will happen if the high pressure ridge to the north remains strong and a front which is forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast on Sunday has no effect on the storm. The official forecast models are latching on to this solution and the National Hurricane Center is following this track.
Two, the front mentioned above pulls the system northward as it nears Cuba. This is possible if the front turns out stronger, or the next area of high pressure does not build in fast enough to support a stronger high in the first solution. (see link wx maps graphic below)
As for the United States, even if it heads toward us, it would not be until mid to late next week that it would be a concern.
Brandon
p.s. please excuse my hand drawn graphics.... :-)
