July 2007 will go down in the record books as one of the wettest here in Albany. Here is the top ten list courtesy of the Albany National Weather Service.
FROM THE TOP TEN BOOK JULY 1795 THRU 2006
WARMEST COLDEST WETTEST DRIEST
===================================
1 79.7 1868 67.6 1992 9.37 1871 0.49 1968
2 78.6 1872 67.6 2000 8.57 1850 0.62 1929
3 77.6 1820 68.3 1860 7.92 1848 0.70 1849
4 77.3 1854 68.4 1971 7.83 1863 0.84 2002
5 77.1 1825 68.5 1976 7.54 2005 0.86 1955
6 77.1 1887 68.6 1829 7.20 2004 1.07 1898
7 77.0 1870 68.6 1875 7.19 1870 1.20 1963
8 76.6 1866 68.8 1978 6.96 1975 1.27 1922
9 76.5 1921 68.9 1965 6.94 1858 1.28 1910
10 76.5 1955 68.9 1984 6.78 1874 1.29 1964
68.9 2001
====================================
A total of 7.03" of rain fell during the month of July (3.65" above normal) placing the month in the #8 slot on the list which will bump July of 1874 off when it is updated.
On a completely different topic, hurricane season has been uneventful so far.....until today. Tropical Depression #3 (now Tropical Storm Chantal) formed yesterday off the U.S East Coast between Bermuda and Cape Cod. The system poses no threat to U.S. interests, unless you’re in a boat. Canada may be dealt a glancing blow, but the storm will not be tropical by then, just a powerful ocean storm. I don't expect to see it strengthen any further as the water gets pretty chilly and the upper level winds are quite unfavorable for strengthening. Strong westerly wind shear will aid in weakening the storm.
Tropical activity has been non-existent in the Atlantic for the last several weeks due in part to the same weather pattern that had been affecting us here in New York and the entire eastern seaboard. In the higher levels of the atmosphere an area of low pressure and its associated trough has been dug in along the East Coast extending into the Caribbean. This provides a fast upper level wind flow from west to east. These winds hinder tropical development because they "tear" apart any groups of thunderstorms and squalls that form. These winds have been very obvious on satellite pictures over the last several weeks. When these winds are not present, the storm clusters tend to hang together pulling more energy and strength from the warm water and if given enough time will begin to rotate and form a tropical system.
Now the low and its associated trough has slid off the east coast and may begin to breakdown. This sets up a few scenarios for the rest of the tropical season. For the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, June through August is the best time for tropical development. As we know, it has been quiet. From August until the close of tropical season at the end of the November the focus for development is the eastern Atlantic. If the current pattern holds (low/trough over the East Coast) any activity that does develop in the central/eastern Atlantic most likely will be steered northward, curving north near or around Bermuda. This scenario happened with a few storms last year. This would keep the storms well away from the United States and Bahamas. If the pattern breaks down, any system that forms could potentially take a more westward track which is bad for anyone from the Bahamas to the Carolinas, and potentially the Northeast if conditions were just right.
For the immediate future I would not be surprised to see some increased tropical activity in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico fire up over the next week or so.
-Brandon
