Today starts the first day of hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean and from viewing the latest satellite imagery, there is not much activity to look at. In a former job I used to keep very close tabs on the tropics this time of year because I was forecasting for ships and luxury yachts at sea transiting these areas....you tend to pick up on trends.
Last year the first 15 days (actually through June for that matter) the Pacific tropical season was fairly quiet with only 2 weak systems forming. Actually there was not much thunderstorm activity at all in the east Pacific. In fact, at the time I remember having the discussion with my colleagues and boat captains about how slow the season was progressing and would it have any relevance to the Atlantic hurricane season which starts June 1st.
As it turns out, the Atlantic season was much calmer than forecasted.
Now I am not trying to draw any specific scientific conclusion here as I am only drawing on my past experience, but it would be worth watching the east Pacific over the next few weeks to see what kind, if any, storms develop. It could be a sign of what is to come in the Atlantic once again.
The one big difference between this year and last is the absence of El Nino this year in the east Pacific. El Nino increases the wind shear across the lower latitudes and hinders the development of tropical systems. That alone, would have me expecting a busier hurricane season in the Atalntic this year. How busy is yet to be seen....
Back in New York...
Warm temperatures into the 80's are expected today, but warm temps will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon. There is a slight risk that some of these will be severe - packing strong winds and possible hail. The risk of severe thunderstorms do increase tonight and Wednesday as a potent low and cold front cross the state around mid-day Wednesday. Temperatures will also cool off and may struggle to get to 60° by Thursday. The week should end on a cool and unsettled note, keeping the chance for showers into Friday. Another system may head our way for the weekend, but I'll hold optomistic that it will miss us to the east, and better weather will prevail. That will depend partly on what happens today and tomorrow.
Brandon
