I'm talking big old fashoned upstate New York snowstorm!
Yes, many parts of our region have received some bursts of light to moderate snow over the last week, the most recent being this morning. However, these light snow events are not even putting a dent in our snow deficit. More on that in a minute....
As for the temperatures, since the beginning of January, they have taken a tumble. The daily average temperature for the first 7 days of January was 44°. This is 22° above average! You will probably remember that this week included our record high of 71° on Saturday the 6th. The following 7 days (8th-14th) brought the average daily temperature down to 32.7°, and during the last week we have gotten down to normal with our average daily temperature at 22.6°.
So the cold air is here, with no end in sight. The pattern shift occurred about a week ago with one storm system opening the door to the arctic air from the north. Now, the overall global pattern supports a more winter-like pattern over the Northeastern U.S.
Snowfall here in Albany has been virtually non-existant. To date, we only have 1.9" of snow recorded which is 28.5" below normal. We have alot of ground to make up to get to our 62.7" seasonal average. Un-officially pretty much everyone from the North Country to the Green Mountains, Mohawk Valley to the Berkshires have not seen the snowfall they have come to expect by this time in the season. However, some of these locations have gotten more than those of us in the Capital District.
Now that we have the cold air in place, we need to get a coastal storm. Lately, there have been 2 that have passed out to sea to far south and east to affect our region. One of the larger reasons for this is due to the jetstream upper level wind pattern. The jetstream works the same as an ocean current only with air rather than water. Its a transport mechanism for the atmosphere. In the winter we talk about the polar jet and the sub-tropical or tropical jet, each carrying its brand of temperatures and weather. Now that the polar jet has dropped south of our region opening the door to cold, we need it to "phase" with the sub-tropical jet to bring a storm up the east coast, rather than off the east coast. The clash between cold and warm air is what causes storms, and right now, that is occuring over the mid-Atlantic, with nothing in place to steer a weather system north.
The current weather pattern does not show a phase happening this week. The polar jet will continue to steer weather systems off the mid-Atlantic coast. The sub-tropical jet is well to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Until these two can phase together, I do not expect a big snowstorm to come in our direction.
What I do expect is cold temperatures to continue, with another round of sub-zero overnights coming by Thursday and Friday. There will be a little bit of snow from weak Alberta Clipper systems passing every few days, and also some lake effect, otherwise significant snow over a broad region is not in the forecast.
Brandon
